November 5, 2024 was a memorable day as Americans elected their next President – Former President Donald Trump.
When people think of politics and research, political polling tends to emerge. At Lux, we have great respect for organizations that choose to offer this service. Since the 2020 elections, many have published their learnings in polling from weighting, composition, to a more complicated media space.1
- With more people screening calls from unknown phone numbers, political pollsters are forced to move away from the telephone as their core sampling strategy.
- Reputable polling firms have had to shift from telephone to including online and mail in their sampling strategy.2
- With more ways to reach people, there is a greater reliance than ever on firms to have the proper modelling and weighting strategies.2,3,
In the days that followed the election, there was ample coverage that the polls got it wrong. But…almost all predicted it would be close. The state-level polling error was the lowest it has been in the last 25 years.4
- Political pollsters are learning that weighting the broader population on demographic variables such as age, gender, and race isn’t enough to obtain accurate results.
- For example, 8 to 12 variables are now weighted by the Pew Research Center, Gallup, and The New York Times / Siena College. 2
- While poll results are more accurate than previous years, it doesn’t mean everything is solved.
- According to ABC News: Statistical bias, which measures whether polls are missing the outcome in the same direction, has increased with overestimated support for Harris … A sign that Trump supporters continue to be hard to reach by Pollsters.4
Learnings from political polling are transferable and relevant to primary consumer research. To get the best insights and learnings, your research partner has to be able to speak to these traits with confidence and evidence.
- Quality of Panelists/Participants: With greater access than ever to sample and participants, it’s essential to be confident in the quality of who you are engaging. What quality control metrics are in place? How do you know they are relevant humans? What personal vetting is necessary to be part of your partners’ network?
- Weighting: Weighting the correct variables is essential to reaping the right results. What are weights based on? How confident are you in the weighting scheme? What is your research partner’s expertise in customizing the research methodology to meet your needs?
- Representation: Like pollsters who continue to refine their approach, having the right composition is essential to the analysis. Who is being included and represented? What are hard-to-reach audiences that are being included in different ways? What experience does your research partner have in finding niche audiences that are relevant to your business?
Here at Lux, we’re purposely supplier agnostic and have been since we started 15 years ago. We pride ourselves on having a best-in-class network of partners and customizing each research approach unique to your needs. We pick the best partner for your situation, versus selling our own panelists or participants. It also ensures we can focus on what gets us jazzed and excited – the strategy and insights.
Frankie Aeng is VP, Client Experience frankie@luxinsights.com
3 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4ve004llxo
4 https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-polls-accurate-underestimated-trump/story?id=115652118